Canadian Bond Rally

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Ben Bernanke’s recent comments about the current state of affairs in North American financial markets has left many wondering what is coming next.  Between quantitative easing and other measures Bernanke has also spoken louder through action than through words as Russia and China both pull away from the US dollar.  The US treasury bonds have risen slightly in value however and the Federal Reserve has assured everyone that a massive sell off is unlikely due to this renewed strength.
The job market in the US paints a very different picture though, in light of lackluster job growth in November alongside diminished GDP this year the United States paints a very bleak forecast for the near future.  US treasury bond yields continue to be extraordinarily low (at 2.5%) and this alongside serious doubt in the country’s economic stability overall does not fare well with regard to its effect on Canada.
The real story here is that US bonds are on the verge of being completely useless and as a result the USD is sure to suffer.  Those who are active in the forex currency exchange should take note of these developments and not make assumptions based solely on bond yields numbers.  Both the CAD and USD are of course joined at the hip in many ways and should (typically) be paired with other currencies unless of course you can spot a correction hitting one currency sooner than the other.  In this case this would probably be a good indicator and something worth while to explore.
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An Introduction to Developing a Futures Trading System

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Futures trading is a great arena for traders that have had success with equities to graduate to when they’re ready to take on a little more risk in search of more profits. But just like stocks or forex, in order to be successful in futures trading, you need to have a plan that gives you an edge and helps you keep your losses small while maximizing your winners. Yeah, that’s the same old advice you’re bound to hear about developing a system for trading any asset class, but it’s especially true with futures, where the use of leverage can definitely magnify our winners, but also put us at risk for losing more than our initial investment.In fact, let’s consider that lesson number one when it comes constructing a futures trading system from the ground up. Traders should be pragmatic and deliberate when considering futures trading. Just because you’ve been successful with stocks, forex or options doesn’t mean you’ll find the same success with futures. In other words, make sure that you’re in a position to absorb the inherent risks associated with this kind of trading and make sure the volatility that is prevalent in futures is something you can financially and mentally handle.

Narrow Your Focus For Successful Results

One of the great things about the world of futures trading is the large variety of products that investors can trade. If you like trading indexes, you can trade futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 among other US indexes. You can even trade futures on some of the major European indexes. If bonds are your cup of tea, there are futures available on various US government-issued bonds. For forex traders, there are futures available on single currencies and if you still love stocks, you can trade single-stock equity futures. Of course we cannot forget commodity futures, which will give you access to gold, crude oil, soybeans, grains and a host of other commodities.
While we would certainly prefer to have choices when investing, all the choices in the world of futures can be dizzying and trying to trade all of these products would require more than one pair of eyes. Choose a couple of futures products to start with and focus your energies there when your system is in its nascent stages. Perhaps, as you become more experienced and your profits grow, you can add more products, but stick with just two or three to start. That narrow focus will keep you disciplined and focused on the best trades.

Back-Test Your Strategies, Please

You simply cannot go into futures trading blind, so testing your strategies before you start can save you a lot of heartache (and money). Make sure your back-test is comprehensive. Depending on what product you’re trading, you’ll want to back-test at least six months of data if not more. To get the most optimal results out of your back-test, you’ll want to encompass a variety of market conditions, position sizes and stop-loss parameters.
While it may sound mundane, we cannot stress enough the importance of knowing your system’s strengths and weaknesses before setting it loose on a live account.

Decide On A Few Indicators…

And stick with those. Keep it simple. The choices among indicators that are available to futures traders are almost as varied as the products themselves. Again, with all these choices, we want to find just a few indicators that we’re comfortable with and understand well and stick with those.
Deciding on what indicators to use depends on your trading style. If you’re a trend follower, it might be best to stick with moving averages and use the ADX indicator. Some traders focus on volume action and here we would watch on balance volume and the advance/decline distribution. Momentum traders would likely be comfortable with Parabolic SAR and Stochastics, whereas traders that hunt for overbought and oversold conditions would probably be most comfortable using the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Indicators are useful and futures traders shouldn’t be without them, but you should consider them to be a bountiful buffet. If you consume too much, you’ll be sorry in the end.

Remember Why You Have A System In The First Place

Consider your system a protective measure, an insurance policy if you will, first and foremost, and a profit generator second. Your system should include strict rules to keep your losses small. Perhaps if you’re a tech guru, you can automate your system to implement stop-loss orders depending on the market you’re trading and size of your trade. Regardless of how you develop your system, it must include protection. Your system should keep you in the game, not run you out in the first inning. Keeping those losses small will keep you in the game for a long time.
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Municipal Bonds A Dangerous Investment For 2009

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Many times just using logic an investor can steer away from problems. It seemed forever municipal bonds were considered one of the safest investments. One did not get rich by investing in municipal bonds however they were consistent and the default possibility was almost not a possibility. Fast forward to 2009 municipal bonds have to be one of the scariest investment choices. All one has to do is to look at State by State finances to be aware. California faces a $60 billion deficit, New York faces a $3.2 billion deficit and another example New Jersey faces an $8 billion structural deficit next year. If States run deficits like this why would one want to lend them money? <strong>I surely would not.</strong> One could argue if a State defaulted…then the FED would bail them out. Really who needs that aggravation and worry. We are in some extremely uncertain times. What I hear day in and day out.. <strong>What do I do with my money? Where is a safe place to put my money?</strong> The answer is to diversify. Do not have more than 5% of your assets in any idea. Even leaving money in the bank is risky due to potential inflation. Now more than ever one should consider at at least a 5% allocation to trend following a basket of commodities. Trend following strategies are liquid and transparent.When one trades commodities they are dealing in real assets. At the end of the day if the crisis worsens ( unemployment now at 10.2% in the US) trend following shines during crisis times. People still need to eat. People still need heat in their homes. People still need to put gas in their cars. The world will not end but it stands the chance of changing very much from what we have taken for granted.
Andrew Abraham
A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com
www.AJpartnersinc.com
www.myinvestorsplace.com
Futures trading involves risk. People can and do lose money
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What is Riskier The Stock Markets or Commodity Trading?

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The question always comes up what is riskier, the Stock Markets or commodity trading? Firstly both are, but what I have an issue with is that the initial response when one hears that I am a commodity trading advisor or involved in commodity trading is that is RISKY. How many people forgot how they listened blindly to CNBC or Bloomberg during the tech bubble and lost their retirement money with Enron, Worldcom and countless other stocks. It seems people want to watch Jim Cramer, the weather forecast for crops, what Bernanke will say to think they will find their way to investment success. Even now the talk of green shoots. People want to predict. This is what makes risk. People that try to gather all the information and make their analysis without regard to position size… where to exit…etc.. ..are totally increasing their risk. Successful trend followers on the other hand focus soley on the risk. Trend followers can be involved in commodity trading, stock markets, currencies, bonds or individual shares. By now if you have been reading my posts you realize that prediction is pointless. No one knows the future. Successful commodity trading advisors and trend followers know that only thing that is going to get them in a trade is some type of price move to the upside or downside. Not what Bernanke might say…Or what Opec might do. Cold hard facts… PRICE MOVEMENT!. The goal of the successful commodity trading advisor or trend follower is simply to jump on board, make themselves available for a “potential” move. Again no predicting, and more so..successful trend followers know that most of the trades will not work. The successful commodity trading advisor or trend follower does not care. He does not put any mental baggage on any trade. The trade either worked or did not. The successful commodity trading advisor or trend follower does not need to take BIG bets.. but a small percentage of his/her account (less than 1%) to see if any trades works or not.
The real key in successful wealth building,stock markets investing or even commodity trading is to compound money over long periods of time. In order for this successful wealth building, the secret is to understand the risk in any approach ( stock markets, bonds or even forex) and look to manage the risk on a consistent and diligent basis. What is this basis.. ( as I say in all my posts)
Risk per trade
Risk per sector
Open trade risk
Do not think that anything is without risk. All types of financial products ( even cash) have risks. Accept the risk, define the risks and separate yourself from the emotions. As I started out in this post, most people want to be told what to do, that is why they watch CNBC etc.. More so what I have seen the majority of the investing public does not have the discipline to follow even the best thought out financial plan with strong risk & money management. If you seek to compound money over long periods of time, consider allocating to a professional money manager, commodity trading advisor that trades in a manner you understand and you can follow. In addition you want to be sure you have liquidity ( you can take your money out at least within 1 month) and you have transparency. Lastly do not invest more than 5% of your net worth in any idea. Remember everything has risks. Even the way the US dollar is going just holding US dollars in your bank account can increase your risk. Diversify and look to manage the risk.
Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com
Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk.People can and do lose money trading.
(ArticlesBase SC #1044767)

Stock Option Trading – Fundamental Flaw in Fundamental Analysis and Stock Picking

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Clinging on to Fundamental Analysis and stock picking software, only keeps you stuck in trading equities. Trading this way, compounds concentration risk in one asset class and fails to adequately diversify risks across Equities, Bonds, Currencies and Commodities.  There’s much more to stock option trading, than stock itself.
I cite Benjamin F. King’s study, quoted repeatedly since 1966, because it remains valid and has yet to be disproved to the point of dismissing its logic.
Market and Industry Factors, Journal of Business, January 1966:  “ Of a stock’s move …
  • 31% can be attributed to the general stock market,
  • 13% to industry influence,
  • 36% to influence of other groupings, and the remaining
  • 20% is peculiar to the one stock.”
There must be a more compelling reason for you to trade stock other than just for the movement, if only 20% is unique to the underlying equity in question.  Consider this, in context of the Fundamental Analysis or stock picking software that you bought on a per $1 basis.  For each $1 dollar you spend, you “outsourced” the analysis at a cost of 80 cents, only to receive back 20 cents worth of work. Shouldn’t the 80:20 rule of “outsourcing” be the other way round? The problem is that you are still stuck with 80% of the work, to analyze price movement!  Plus, the more you use FA techniques/stock picking software, the more trading capital is stuck in equities alone.
Now, you can say “special” research papers help you pick stocks.  Let’s have a look at some of the more common fundamental metrics in these research subscriptions:
1. Dividend Yield: the problem is in the variability of yields as firms are in different stages of their business development.  A Mature company that dominates in a well established sub-segment/sector is able to afford a different dividend yield; versus, a Young company in a growth-oriented field; versus, a Small firm in a growing area that may not be able to afford a dividend payout.  Bear in mind there is nothing special about firms that pay a dividend.
A company that gives away a portion of it’s retained earnings – which is what a dividend is – effectively gives away part of its valuation, which means it is not worth as much as a company that does need to give investors candy to commit capital to it.  So, a dividend paying stock has to be far superior to a non-dividend paying stock for reasons other than the dividend.  If it is not, there’s no point looking for dividend paying products to trade, there are plenty of non-dividend paying Indexes to trade.
2. Price/Book Ratio: the problem is this metric varies across industries and from company to company, as the asset base and capital structures of companies change over time. It lacks cross sector applicability and accounting complexity arises from a firm’s capital structure as it changes due to acquisitions/divestments/CAPEX for new product lines; or, product line cut-backs, as recently seen in the restructuring of major US car companies.
3.  Price/Cash Flow Ratio (the cousin of the P/E): accounting laws on depreciation vary across Asia, Europe and US.  As accounting rules are driven by tax codes, which change considerably across regions despite adoption of global accounting standards, there is a lack of uniformity in homogenizing a fundamental ratio that will fit as a common benchmark across geographies.
These metrics fail to help you compare say a Dell parented in the US to an Acer parented in Taiwan; but, is listed as an ADR in the US, even though both are competitors in the same sector as computer manufacturers.
Furthermore, the current dislocated cost of capital in credit markets, impairs the ability of corporations to optimize the operating cost of their balance sheets.  In essence, corporations are left with the working capital cash flows remaining on their balance sheets, as testament to their financial strength. Do not waste your money on Fundamental Analysis software or research paper subscriptions.
As there is a fundamental flaw in fundamental analysis and stock picking, how do you select trades? Trade the options of a broad-based Equity Index to replace single stock exposure.  To replace Fundamental Analysis, use the Relative Strength measure based on Point & Figure methods.
What is Relative Strength?  It is nothing more than taking one price as the Numerator, divided by another price as the Denominator, then multiplied by 100.  RS = (Price 1 / Price 2) x 100.  Typically, RS calculations use daily closing prices.  Though simple in its mathematical construction, RS is ingeniously powerful when it is applied not only within a sector; but, across sectors and between asset classes.
Let’s start of within a sector.  For example, if you choose 2 semiconductor stocks trading at different prices, how do you know if one stock is outperforming the other in the same sector, when the 2 stocks have price changes at different rates; plus, the sector’s price itself is also changing?
SOX = Semiconductor Sector Index, trades up from 452.24 to 467.81.
Numerator1:      Price1 = BRCM 33.15    RS1 = 7.33    Price2 = 33.80    RS2 = 7.23
Numerator2:      Price1  = TSM 9.91    RS1 = 2.19    Price2 = 13.43    RS2 = 2.87
Common Denominator:      SOX  Price 1 = 452.24           Price 2 = 467.81
BRCM’s RS1 = (33.15/452.24) x 100 = 7.33. BRCM’s RS2 = (33.80/467.81) x 100 = 7.23.
TSM’s RS1 = (9.91/452.24) x 100 = 2.19.  TSM’s RS2 = (13.43/467.81) x 100 = 2.87.
BRCM’s price rises from 33.15 to 33.80 and TSM’s price also rises from 9.91 to 13.43.  Simply because BRCM is a larger stock, does that mean it benefits from the SOX trading up? No, the RS reading (RS1 compared to RS2) shows BRCM’s RS reading dropped (7.33 down to 7.23) against TSM’s RS reading, which increased (2.19 to 2.87).  RS confirms TSM as the outperformer rising in price strength versus BRCM’s weakened price.  RS is constructed on pure price rules.  Using an Index as the denominator, acts as a much more durable benchmark and is structurally more reliable, compared to any “magical” TA indicator; or, combination of income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements touted in stock picking programmes.
You can replace BRCM or TSM with Indexes or ETFs.  Using Indexes with Relative Strength enables a common denominator to compare Equities against Bonds, Commodities and Currencies, to crossover into asset classes other than stocks to trade.  It’s not that Relative Strength is infallible.  But compared to the fundamental metrics cited above, Relative Strength fails the least.  Break the mould on what you learnt about stock option trading.
Is there an example of an optionable and consistently profitable portfolio that trades using Relative Strength across multiple asset classes? Yes.  Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a retail online option trading portfolio that excludes the use of single stocks and Fundamental Analysis, using broad based equity Indices, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs.  There is no need to trade FX directly. Just trade the options of Currency ETFs.
(ArticlesBase SC #997696)

Bond Income in Retirement

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Bond Income in Retirement

When we retire, most of us will be losing our primary source of regular income: our paychecks. However, we have a tendency to can still want to secure a regular supply of income to pay our day-to-day living expenses. Income in retirement will return from a variety of sources: pensions from outlined-profit retirement plans and Social Security are 2 of the foremost common. However, as 401(k) plans and different outlined contribution plans have become prevalent within the workplace, several retirees find themselves with a substantial nest egg that they have to speculate in such a method that gives income.
Investing in bonds remains one amongst the safest ways in which to get income. If you hold your bond till maturity, you’ll get your principal back, provided that the entity issuing the bond — a personal company or a government entity — will not default. And within the meantime you’ll be paid interest on an everyday basis (ordinarily, twice a year).
A bond is a loan: when you get a bond, you are lending the issuing agency money. All bonds are issued with established maturity dates — the date on which the issuing agency guarantees to come your principal to you. The maturity date will be one year, 3 years, 10 years, or longer. Additionally, all bonds pay interest at a group rate — known as the “coupon rate.” Bonds with longer maturities typically pay higher coupons. But, if you intend to carry your bonds till maturity, getting longer-term bonds ties up your money for extended periods of time.
Bonds issued by firms — referred to as “corporate bonds” — generally pay higher coupons than government-issued bonds, as a result of the risk of default is greater. It’s usually best to stay with prime-quality corporations, whose bonds are thought-about trustworthy (and are so known as “investment-grade bonds”). Smaller, less-established corporations additionally issue bonds, however as a result of of the upper risk of default, these bonds pay even higher coupons. Typically, these high-risk bonds are referred to as “junk bonds.”
The U.S. government problems bonds through the Treasury Department: these bonds, merely called Treasuries, are among the safest investments you’ll be able to make, but they pay low interest. State and local governments conjointly issue bonds, known as municipal bonds or “munis”; interest income from munis is federally tax-exempt within the United States.
One in all the largest risks that you are taking in purchasing bonds is inflation risk. Parenthetically you buy a company bond for $ten,000, with a maturity of 10 years, paying a 3.5 p.c coupon rate. Every year, you’ll receive interest payments totaling $350, and at the end of ten years you may get your $10,000 back. However, ten years may be a long time. Inflation might erode the value of your annual $350 payments. Inflation also tends to drive up coupon rates offered by new bond problems, so once five years, new company bonds may be offering 5.5 % interest. You’ll be able to perpetually sell your 3.5 % bond within the secondary market and buy a replacement bond paying 5.5 p.c, however no one is going to wish to pay full worth for your old bond; you may get something less than $ten,000 for it.
One technique to combat this risk, significantly if you’re getting Treasuries, is called “laddering.” Purchase a series of bonds at totally different maturities: one-year, 3-year, five-year, and ten-year, say. As the years pass by and your bonds mature, purchase new bonds, at the prevailing coupon rate, with the principal that’s came to you. This means, you diversify your risk to allow for fluctuations in inflation, and in bond coupon rates.
Retirees who are interested in bonds should place together a diversified portfolio of treasuries and corporates, adding municipal bonds if there are sufficient resources. Gauge how abundant interest you may be earning annually on your bond portfolio, and aim to carry your bonds to maturity. If you fancy “playing the market” and have some talent in choosing investments, you’ll be able to set a small quantity of money aside for trading bonds within the secondary markets, however it’s best to play it safe with the bulk of your nest egg.
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How To Invest In Bonds

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E*Trade claims finding and buying stocks is so easy, it can be done by a baby, so you already know how to do it, correct?
While stock brokers over the previous 10 years online have tried to make investing in stocks as easy as child’s play, unfortunately, investing in bonds has been slower to evolve. On many broker sites online, bond platforms are not even in existence. Therefore, the world of investing in individual bonds remains murky.
While a certain percentage in your personal portfolio should be invested in bonds–a rule of thumb is 40% for someone in their 40s–you may have relied on mutual funds bonds for that portion. That in itself may not be bad since mutual bonds funds allow you to own bonds from several hundred companies while investing just a small amount. Also, professional managers do the bond investment research for you. Bond funds, however, also have a disadvantage to owning those individual bonds, which is significant.
When you purchase a bond, you know the following: 
* the exact amount of your interest payments
* when your payments will be received
* when your initial investment will be paid back–so long as there is no default of the company.
On the other hand, prices of the bond funds move up and down the same as other mutual funds. If your money is needed by you on any specific date, you do not know what value to expect of your mutual fund on that date. This makes individual bond investing, therefore, preferable for those who may need a certain amount of money at a particular time.
As an example, say you would need tutition in the amount of $40,000 for your 16-year-old to attend college at age 18. You would need to invest $40,000 in two-year individual bonds, and in investing that way, you would be assured of having that amount of money when you need it–so long as the company stays solvent and no bankruptcy occurs. If it is otherwise invested in bond mutual funds, no-one would know what it would be worth when it is time to withdraw the
funds. Typically, bonds do not go down by any large percentage, but in the year 2008 we learned that is not always true.
If you need a certain retirement income stream, or are saving for a timely goal, and you think you may profit by investing in individual bonds, here is a primer on the way bonds work:
How bonds work
Treasury bonds are issued by the United States Treasury Department to finance the Federal Government’s operations. In a similar way, states, cities, corporations and companies issue bonds as a means of financing their operations. Considered a safe investment, Treasury bonds normally have no default risk. When a corporation or company issues bonds to raise money, however, investors demand interest rates that are higher than U.S. Treasury bonds offer, as compensation for the risk to investors in the event the corporation or company goes into bankruptcy.
For example, if a company–say General Electric–needed to raise an amount of one hundred million dollars for the building of a new factory to manufacture refrigerators, and planned to pay back the loan in 2020, they would look at the market in order to determine the interest rate the company would have to offer to interest investors in lending them that amount of money. If the investors’ demand
was 6%, General Electric would then issue one hundred million in bonds with an interest rate–the coupon rate–of 6%, for immediate purchase, by pre-agreement with mutual funds, banks and possibly, individuals. Company bonds are mostly available in $1,000 denominations–called par value.
For each $1,000 bond the investor owned, therefore, he or she would receive $60 back–6% of $1,000–per year for each year until 2020, when he or she would get the entire $1,000 back.
Between the time that General Electric issued the bond and the time that the bond would mature–or come due–the investors are able to sell the bonds in the secondary market. Just like stock prices, however, bond prices will fluctuate.
If General Electric had issued the bond three years ago, the company’s chances since then of surviving until 2020 may still be good, but may be definitely gloomier. If so, an investor selling his bond today will need to offer the buyer a higher interest rate than the 6% he orginally paid for it, due to the extra risk to the buyer. General Electric, however, will still pay $60 per year to the new investor. Therefore, the new investor will expect to buy the bond at less than the par value.
While the coupon rate of the bond will remain at 6%, if the new investor pays $900 for the bond, that makes the yield higher because he has only invested $900 for a $60 yearly return, and because he will still get back $1000. for the bond at maturity.
Of course, the reverse can happen, and at times investors buy bonds for more than par value, and that reduces the yield.
The trouble with buying bonds
Small investors, unfortunately, have more difficulty buying individual bonds than they would in buying individual stocks. One reason is, there are more single bonds than single stocks. Think of this: One single company may have several different times when it wanted to borrow capital, meaning it would have several different bonds offered on the market, as opposed to only one common stock.
More importantly, the process of actually buying a bond is not easy. Most often, the stock broker acts as an intermediary between the buyer and the seller. Bond brokers, however, often are the investors who actually buy or sell you the bond. As an individual bond investor, therefore, unless you have more than one broker, your bond purchases will be limited to whatever bonds your broker has in his inventory at any given time.
Another area of confusion is bond commissions. Whereupon you may pay a flat commission in buying and selling stocks, with bonds the commission is built right into the price of the bond. For instance, if your broker originally paid $1000 for a bond that yielded 7%, he may offer it to you for $1100, and that means you would realize a yield of only 6.4%. That is, $70 divided by $1100. The difference between the price he paid and the price at which he sells it to you, becomes his commission. Larger investors who are able to invest millions of dollars into bonds at one time tend to get better price offers than small investors, who may be able to invest only $10,000 in bonds at a time.
Until recently, smaller investors were unable to see how much other investors bought and sold bonds for, meaning that the broker had the potential to seriously scam the small investor. SIFMA, fortunately, has now built a website where individuals can research prices of recent bonds transactions.
Why the hassle is worth it
With all this information, one may wonder: Why bother?
For small start-up investors, or those who have only a small portion of their portfolios set aside for bonds–less than $100,000–the short answer is–Don’t! Stick with a low expense no-load mutual fund–like this one or that one–until you have more funds accumulated to invest in bonds.
For investors who meet the criteria, though, using bonds will create the kind of predictable income stream that no bond fund is able to guarantee.
(ArticlesBase SC #3468940)
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